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With playoff teams sitting players during Sunday’s NFL Week 18 games, many betting lines have shifted, making an underdog a favorite and the team with the better record an underdog. If a game features two non-playoff teams, what can you expect from two bad teams?
But don’t worry. We’ve identified a few markets that we feel good referring to as our ‘best NFL bets’ of the week.
Best bets for Jan. 5: NFL
Chiefs (+11.5) vs. Broncos
Denver will be playing to win and earn a playoff berth against the Chiefs B team. With the team’s stars on the bench, expectations are low for the Chiefs. But any team that Andy Reid puts on the field will be playing to win. I don’t expect them to.
Denver’s motivation is a bit stronger and will help propel the Broncos to a much-needed win. But the Chiefs will not make it easy for them. Kansas City will keep it within ten.
Our Pick: Chiefs +11.5 at -108 (DraftKings)
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Falcons (-7.5) vs. Panthers
Atlanta needs a win and a Tampa Bay loss to make the postseason. While a Bucs loss to the Saints seems unlikely, the Falcons will still be putting their best foot forward. Playoffs or not, they’ll want to see how well the offense plays in Michael Penix Jr.’s third start.
Fortunately, they are playing a dreadful Carolina Panthers team. I don’t expect to put up much of a fight. Penix Jr. will have his best game to date, and Bijan Robinson will pound the Panthers’ defense into submission. Atlanta wins this one by ten.
Our Pick: Falcons -7.5 at -106 (FanDuel)
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Saints vs. Buccaneers (-14)
It’s a massive spread, but the Buccaneers have one of the hottest offenses in the NFL heading into Week 18. Four of their last five wins were by 14+ points. The offense put up at least 28 points in those four games and didn’t allow more than 17 points.
So, it hasn’t just been the offense dominating teams; the defense has been doing its part, too.
Now, while the Bucs did hang 51 points on the Saints in Week 6, it hasn’t been terrible in recent weeks. But the offense has been terrible, and will be missing several players this week. Consequently, it may take until the third, but Tampa Bay will cover the spread.
Our Pick: Buccaneers -14 at -108 (DraftKings)
Also, with Mike Evans needing 85 yards to reach 1,000 yards for the 11th consecutive season. The Saints have played Evans tough over the years, but several players have spoken out about how they want him to reach that plateau. I’m confident he’ll get it done.
- Mike Evans, OVER 94.5 receiving yards at -113 (FanDuel)
- OVER 6.5 Receptions at -120 (FanDuel)
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Vikings vs. Lions
This could be the best game of the regular season. It will feature two of the hottest quarterbacks in the game and two of the best offenses fighting for the NFC North division title, the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and a bye in the first round of the playoffs. So, yeah—both sides will be plenty motivated.
Detroit won the first game, 31-29. But, if last week’s game against San Francisco is any indication, this game will turn into a high-scoring shootout.
Our Pick: OVER 56 at -110 (Caesars)
This game will contain a lot of fireworks, which will make for some incredible statistical performances by several players. Several player props in this game absolutely qualify to be on our ‘best NFL bets’ list:
- Jared Goff, OVER 284.5 passing yards at -129 (Caesars)
- Sam Darnold, OVER 288.5 passing yards at -113 (BetRivers)
- Jordan Addison, OVER 65.5 receiving yards at -114 (BetRivers)
- OVER 5.5 receptions at +104 (BetRivers)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown, OVER 79.5 receiving yards at -115 (BetRivers)
- OVER 7.5 Receptions at +110 (BetRivers)
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