RBI Monetary Policy Meeting 2025: Will RBI announce rate cute tomorrow?

RBI MPC Meeting 2025: Stock Markets slip ahead of RBI policy

Equity markets retreated for the second consecutive session on Thursday as investors remained cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy decision, with retail major Trent witnessing its steepest single-day fall in recent months following disappointing quarterly numbers. Read more

Rupee plunges 15 paise, hits record low of 87.58 against US dollar

Rupee plunged 15 paise to its record low level of 87.58 against US dollar on Thursday, as the speculation about a potential RBI rate cut in its upcoming monetary policy meeting weighed over the local currency.

The local unit has lost over 2 per cent so far this year. The sharp drop in the domestic unit comes after nearly a 3 per cent fall in the USD/INR pair in 2024, making it one of the worst-performing Asian currencies.

On January 1, 2024, the rupee was at 83.21 against the greenback.The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve bank of India (RBI) began its three-day meeting on Wednesday. The MPC will announce its policy decisions on February 7.

RBI MPC expectations Live: Madhavi Arora, Chief Economist & Harshal Patel, Research Associate, Emkay Global Financial Services:

While a conventional 25bps rate cut in the upcoming MPC policy is less of a market debate, the actions around ‘what beyond a cut’ will be more watched. Easing by stealth via unconventional policy tools like liquidity and regulatory measures will continue. The RBI may also want to address the stress in the non-sovereign money market. We expect another round of ~Rs300bn OMOs, implying Rs900 bn+ in total in FY25E. A CRR cut is a close call, but a temporary cut may not address the underlying banking stress. Easing in ensuing tighter LCR norms (Apr-25 onwards) and lending standards might be a preferred policy tool. We will also watch for additional capital account easing actions via the FCNR route

RBI may hike ATM cash transaction fees

Bank customers will have to shell out more for withdrawing cash from automated teller machines (ATMs) as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is considering to hike the maximum fee that banks can charge for customers’ incremental cash transactions beyond the free five transactions limit, and ATM interchange fee, sources say. 

According to sources, the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), after consultation with industry players, has recommended hiking the cash transaction maximum feefrom₹21 to ₹22 per transaction after the customer exhausts their free transactions limit.

Separately, the NPCI has also recommended hiking the ATM interchange fee from ₹17 to ₹19 for cash transactions, and from ₹6 to ₹7 for non-cash transactions. Each time a customer of a bank uses an ATM deployed by another bank, the former bank will have to pay a fee to the latter. This is called an interchange fee.

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RBI MPC meeting expectations: Market consolidation continues amid caution before RBI’s rate decision

Indian equity benchmarks opened marginally lower on Thursday despite positive global cues, as investors remained cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy decision, which is expected tomorrow.

The Sensex opened at 78,513.36 compared to its previous close of 78,271.28 and is currently trading at 78,157.75, down by 113.53 points or 0.15 per cent. Similarly, the Nifty opened at 23,761.95 against its previous close of 23,696.30 and is now at 23,662.70, losing 33.60 points or 0.14 per cent. The market’s tepid response came even as Asian markets gained up to 0.5 per cent following overnight gains in US indices.

Market consolidation continues amid caution before RBI’s rate decision

Indian equity benchmarks open lower ahead of RBI policy decision; market consolidates with mixed sectoral performance and global cues.

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RBI MPC meeting expectations: Dhiraj Relli, MD & CEO of HDFC Securities

At the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, led by Governor Malhotra, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points. However, this decision remains finely balanced. The central bank may instead prioritize liquidity measures and defer the rate cut to the April policy review, particularly in light of mounting global uncertainties.

There are several compelling arguments in favor of a rate cut. Sluggish economic growth, the government’s advance estimates, and recent efforts to boost banking system liquidity create a strong case. Just last week, the RBI announced plans to inject ₹1.5 lakh crore into the banking system, following a December infusion of ₹1.16 lakh crore through a 50 basis point reduction in the cash reserve ratio.

Nonetheless, challenges persist. Inflation remains above the RBI’s medium-term target of 4%, and increasing global trade-related uncertainties have added complexity to the economic outlook. The government’s fiscal prudence, reflected in the recently announced Union Budget, points toward a downward trajectory for interest rates. While the broader direction seems clear, the precise timing of the next rate cut remains uncertain.

RBI MPC Expectations Live Updates: Policy rate: To cut or not to cut

Given the current growth and investment slowdown, at least a 25 bps cut would be in order, writes Ashima Goyal in businessline

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RBI MPC Policy rate: To cut or not to cut rate

Given the current growth and investment slowdown, at least a 25 bps cut would be in order

RBI MPC Expectations Live Updates: Hitesh Suvarna of JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited

After keeping a hawk eye on price stability till now, the RBI is now likely to prioritise and address growth concerns over the persistent inflationary pressures in the economy. Markets will be keenly watching Governor Malhotra’s actions and statements for any notable change in the central bank’s approach on the monetary policy decision. The RBI’s recent liquidity measures have improved the deficit situation and ensured that conditions are appropriate for policy easing and a smooth rate transmission. The central bank may highlight the effectiveness of supply side measures in tackling inflationary pressures vs. monetary policy. We continue to expect a 25bps rate cut on 7th Feb, which may be followed by a pause; overall, we expect 50-75bps rate cuts in 2025.

RBI MPC Expectations Live: Expectations from the upcoming RBI MPC Meeting by Shishir Baijal, Chairman and Managing Director, Knight Frank India

Right time for turning the policy rate cycle

“Given the Union budget’s emphasis on reviving consumption to support economic growth, the RBI might consider turning the policy rate cycle. This potential rate cut will align with the budget’s objectives of stimulating economic activity while managing a prudent fiscal position, which provides comfort on currency and inflation fronts. Additionally, the government’s balanced borrowing plan and efforts to enhance liquidity could support a favourable environment for such a rate cut.

A rate cut will be beneficial for the real estate sector as it will make borrowings more affordable for the home buyers and reinstate consumer sentiment particularly in the lower and mid income segments. It will also potentially enhance liquidity in the banking system making it easier for developers to access financing for their projects.

RBI MPC Expectations Live updates: Aastha Gudwani, India Chief Economist, Barclays on RBI MPC

We maintain our forecast for the MPC to cut the repo rate by 25 bp at its 7 February meeting.

Alongside a policy repo rate cut, a change in stance to accommodative we see the RBI announce additional measures to infuse liquidity such as topping up the PMO purchase calendar.

We understand the clamor for a successive CRR cut (a 50bp cut will infuse INR1.16 trn) but that’s NOT our base case. 2 reasons behind this-

The revised estimates of non-committed revenue expenditure and capital expenditure (particularly capital outlay) indicate sharp increases in Jan – Mar (much higher than the monthly run rate seen between April- December). A monthly capex run rate of INR1.08 trn is needed for the government to meet the RE (vs the monthly run rate of INR767bn seen during Apr-Dec), corresponding numbers for non-committed revex stand at INR.274 trn (vs INR 1.93trn). So, either government spending will pick up sizably during Jan – Mar, thus addressing the liquidity deficit concerns autonomously or the revised estimates may disappoint.

There is no reason for the RBI MPC to question the revised estimates and thus one can expect a revival in government spending in these months, reducing the need to do a CRR cut to address the liquidity deficit problem.

It is arguably the most potent tool for permanent liquidity infusion and using it for the second consecutive time may be a hurried utilization. Relying on topping up of OMO purchases is a low hanging fruit, we see that as preferred choice.

RBI MPC Expectations Live updates: More accommodative stance for NBFCs, banks needed in RBI monetary policy: HSBC

Upcoming monetary policy announcement by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to provide clarity on crucial aspects that will shape the financial services sector, according to a report by HSBC.The report stated that a more accommodative stance from the RBI would be particularly beneficial for Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) and banks, influencing their growth and profitability.It said “RBI will be more accommodative going forward which would be positive for all NBFCs, especially the larger, better-diversified and highly rated NBFCs.

RBI MPC expectations Live updates: Faltering rupee lags Asian peers, braces for RBI rate cut

The rupee finds itself on shaky ground ahead of the central bank’s first rate cut in nearly five years, which some traders reckon could spur fresh losses for a currency that is already lagging its regional peers in 2025.

The rupee has declined about 2% this year, pressured by portfolio outflows, uncertainty around U.S. trade tariffs and expectations of rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

RBI MPC expectations Live: New RBI Governor’s Sanjay Malhotra’s first MPC meeting; may cut repo rate

The newly-appointed Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra is chairing his first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting starting Wednesday.

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New RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra chairs his first MPC meeting; may cut repo rate

New RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra chairs first MPC meeting with expectations of rate cut after five years.

RBI MPC meeting expectations Live: Markets trade lower after initial optimism ahead of RBI policy decision

Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty gave up early gains and were trading lower on Thursday amid caution ahead of the RBI’s monetary policy decision and fresh foreign fund outflows.

The 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex climbed 280.38 points to 78,551.66 in early trade. The NSE Nifty went up 77.25 points to 23,773.55.

Later, both the benchmark indices gave up early gains and were quoting lower. The BSE benchmark traded 126.78 points lower at 78,141.80, and the Nifty quoted 42.85 points down at 23,653.45.

RBI MPC meeting expectations : Rate trajectory

Malhotra’s policy statement and subsequent press conference will be closely watched for signs he’s sticking to his predecessor’s commitment in bringing inflation down to the 4% target. Analysts will also be keenly watching for any clues on how long and deep any easing cycle could be.

Who is Sanjay Malhotra?

• IAS officer of 1990 batch of Rajasthan cadre
• Computer Science engineer from IIT-Kanpur
• Holds a Master’s in Public Policy from Princeton University, USA
• Before his stint in the Department of Revenue, he was a Secretary in the Department of Financial Services.

  Hailing from Rajasthan, Sanjay Malhotra, 56, is known for his consensus-building approach and pivotal role in implementing the new income tax regime

Who is RBI Governor-designate Sanjay Malhotra?

Sanjay Malhotra, who is from Rajasthan, is known for tax reforms, appointed RBI Governor, with expertise in finance and public policy.

RBI MPC expectations Live: Almost entirely new 6-member monetary policy committee

The governor is chairing an almost entirely new six-member monetary policy committee. Deputy Governor M. Rajeshwar Rao is temporarily on the MPC to replace Michael Patra — who retired last month — while three external members of the MPC joined in October.

RBI MPC meeting expectations Live: Economists predict lower benchmark repurchase rate

Most of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the Reserve Bank of India will now lower the benchmark repurchase rate by at least 25 basis points to 6.25 per cent on Friday. Some analysts say there’s even a chance Malhotra could surprise with a bigger move of 50 basis points.

Sanjay Malhotra may depart from Shaktikanta’s approach

Governor Sanjay Malhotra, who took charge in mid-December, is likely to depart from the hawkish approach of his predecessor, Shaktikanta Das, who kept interest rates unchanged for two years as he doggedly chased a 4% inflation target, says Bloomberg

RBI seen cutting rates for first time since May 2020

The Reserve Bank of India is widely expected to cut interest rates for the first time in nearly five years in Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s first monetary policy review on Friday, aiming to boost economic growth which is seen falling to a four-year low.

Over 70% of respondents, 45 of 62, in a Jan. 22-30 Reuters poll forecast the RBI would cut its key repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% at the conclusion of its Feb. 5-7 meeting, while others expect it will keep rates unchanged, mostly because of above-target inflation.

RBI expected to cut rates for the first time since May 2020

RBI expected to cut rates to boost economy amid slowing growth and above-target inflation, analysts predict.

RBI MPC Meeting Feb 2025: Date, time, expectations and more

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is meeting on Friday, February 7, 2025.

What will happen at the MPC meeting?

The MPC meeting will begin on February 5 and will conclude on February 7. The RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra will announce the committee’s decisions once the meeting ends on February 7.

RBI MPC Meeting Feb 2025: Date, time, expectations and more…

RBI’s MPC meeting on February 7 may result in a rate cut due to recent liquidity measures and economic indicators.

RBI MPC meeting Expectations Live: RBI may cut Repo Rate by 25 bps on February 7: Bank of Baroda

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to reduce the repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) in its upcoming monetary policy announcement on February 7, according to a report by Bank of Baroda. 

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