annashay 
Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb unveiled the Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25 on Monday, exuding confidence that the country’s economy would be able to post growth of 2.7 per cent in the outgoing fiscal year for the gross domestic product (GDP).
The National Accounts Committee showed Pakistan’s GDP growth at 1.37pc for the first quarter of FY25, 1.53pc for the second, and 2.4 for the third. This implies that the economy would need to post a growth rate of 5.5pc in the three months of April-June to get to the 2.7pc figure announced by the finance minister.
The GDP growth figure, however, is still lower than 3.6pc, marking the third successive year of the government missing its targeted figure.
When asked by a reporter about the ambitious figure, Aurangzeb justified the projection by saying that these were official estimates.
“The data provided is by the government,” he said. “Therefore, we will stick to what the government has said and provided. I am going to stay with this.”
The survey is a pre-budget document that contains details of major socio-economic achievements during the outgoing fiscal year. It serves as a vital document ahead of the annual federal budget, which will be presented tomorrow (Tuesday), offering detailed insights into the country’s socio-economic performance over the outgoing fiscal year.
The finance minister, during a press conference in Islamabad, talked about the global economic outlook, noting that global GDP growth was estimated to decline to 2.8pc in 2025 from 3.5pc two years ago.
“Our recovery needs to be looked at in a global context,” he said.
Aurangzeb said Pakistan’s GDP growth in 2023 was negative 0.2pc, which rose to 2.5pc in 2024. “This year, we announced a 2.7pc growth for 2025. This is a gradual recovery and the right way to go about it is to focus on sustainable growth.
“The last thing we want is to go through another round of boom and bust cycles,” Aurangzeb stressed.
According to the survey, the agriculture sector played an “essential and sustainable role” in ensuring food security, supporting rural livelihoods, and fostering national economic resilience, accounting for 23.54pc of the GDP in FY25 and employing over 37pc of the labour force.
“Despite challenging climatic conditions, the agricultural sector demonstrated a positive growth rate of 0.56pc, highlighting its inherent resilience and adherence to historical trends,” the survey said.
It added that livestock emerged as the primary contributor, achieving an expansion of 4.72pc, reinforcing its significant role in agricultural value addition.
Similarly, the fisheries and forestry sub-sectors exhibited steady growth rates of 1.42pc and 3.03pc, respectively, bolstered by “favourable policy measures and prevailing market dynamics”.
The crops sub-sector also experienced a contraction of 6.82pc, primarily driven by a 13.49pc decline in key crops and a 19.03pc decrease in cotton ginning.
The survey said these downturns could be attributed to adverse weather conditions and reduced sowing areas. “Nevertheless, a growth of 4.78pc in other crops indicates the potential for crop diversification and demonstrates resilience in the face of challenging circumstances,” it added.
Industrial growth for FY2024-25 was 4.8pc, compared to negative 1.4pc the previous year, the finance chief said.
“In addition to electricity, gas and water, construction went up by 6.6pc,” he stated.
Aurangzeb observed that while small-scale manufacturing had grown by 1.3pc, large-scale manufacturing had contracted, adding that it was still less than the previous fiscal year.
The minister also stressed the need to “do a deep dive” into the sectors that have declined, which he said included chemicals, iron and steel.
“Autos went up by 40pc, wearable apparel rose by 8pc, textiles went up by 2pc, petroleum products increased by 4.5pc,” the minister said, referring to the gains witnessed by each of these sectors during FY2024-25.
“The devil is always in the details. I will mention why I’m very confident in saying that this fiscal year will be a turnaround story,” he underscored.
The services sector grew by 2.9pc against 2.2pc the previous fiscal year, while the information and communications sector expanded by 6.5pc, according to the minister.
“Construction and real estate grew by 3.8pc, food services by 4.1pc,” he said, adding that the transport sector had grown due to higher activity at ports, shipping lines and airlines.
Inflation, he said, had been a fantastic story for Pakistan: 6.8pc global inflation in 2023, 5.7pc in 2024 and the estimate for 2025 is 4.3pc in terms of CPI inflation.
Aurangzeb noted that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had crossed 29pc in 2023 but now had plunged to just 4.6pc. “So, I think we’ve moved in the right direction in terms of the global figures.”
According to the survey, GDP per capita reached $1,824, up from $1,662 in the previous year, showing a 9.7 per cent increase that was supported by improved economic activity and a stable exchange rate.
Addressing the country’s monetary policy, the finance minister recalled that the interest rate was at a record 22pc in 2023, following which “steps were taken” to reduce it, and now the key policy rate stood at 1,100 basis points, he said.
Talking about macroeconomic indicators, Aurangzeb said, “Public debt and debt-to-GDP ratio was 68pc, which is now 65pc.
“Forex reserves as of June 30, 2024, were $9.4bn, which was a huge and remarkable recovery from where we were back in 2023, where we were down to two weeks of import cover. The recovery after [June] 30 continued and we consolidated it in 2024-25.”
Talking about the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan, Aurangzeb asserted, “Our credibility and trust was re-established under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s leadership.”
Noting that the premier had signed the Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) before the caretaker administration took over, the minister also praised the efforts of caretaker finance minister Dr Shamshad Akhtar as her “discipline allowed us to continue”.
Aurangzeb then highlighted two reasons for Pakistan desiring an Extended Fund Facility with the IMF, with the first one aiming to “bring permanence to macroeconomic stability” and remove fragility.
The second reason, he added, was to continue with structural reforms. “We needed to fundamentally change the economy’s DNA, and for that, we needed structural reforms which are elusive in this country. We needed to proceed with a structured programme,” he said.
On the topic of revenue, Aurangzeb said, “Our tax-to-GDP has hit a five-year high and the prime minister is leading this personally. This whole transformation is around people, processes, and technology.
“Tech played a big role — digital invoicing, production tracking, AI audits, faceless customs regime,” he added, terming the progress in FY2024-25 great.
“Any transformation takes two to three years, and I think we have done a good job in terms of where we wanted to take things,” the minister said, adding that recoveries in the power sector had been “remarkable”.
Aurangzeb then highlighted that industrial and household energy tariffs had been slashed, while private sector and professional boards were introduced for power distribution companies.
“Distribution losses will be reduced going forward,” he added, noting that the National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC) distributing to three companies was an important step toward reducing the bottleneck in transmission.
The finance minister said that resolving the Rs1.275tr circular debt would “play an important role”.
“SOEs (state-owned enterprises) have been talked about at length, and Rs800bn has been spent, if you add up equities and guarantees, this goes into the trillions. Those trillions are better spent elsewhere,” he underscored.
Speaking about the government’s decision to privatise 24 SOEs, Aurangzeb affirmed that it would be “completed with renewed vigour and energy next year under adviser to the PM, Mohammad Ali”.
“Debt servicing is the single-largest expense for the federation. In the past year, the policy rate fell and saved us Rs800bn in debt servicing costs,” the finance minister said, adding that he would address it in detail tomorrow.
On pension reforms, the minister stated that contributions must be defined for new government colleagues joining from July 2024.
“Our biggest step is to stop bleeding and then solve legacy issues. But if we don’t stop leakages, it will become very difficult for us to start tackling legacy issues,” he emphasised.
Shedding light on the ongoing rightsizing efforts by the government, Aurangzeb said that “forty-three ministries and 400 attached departments” were to face reduction.
“It’s not [about] the what and why the federal government has to be rightsized. The question is how,” he said, adding that they will “continue with five ministries at a time”.
The finance minister then invited ministries and the heads of their attached departments to give their input on the matter, including “why a department is so critical to the running of the government”.
Speaking about Pakistan’s current account deficit, Aurangzeb observed there was a surplus of $1.9bn from July 2024 to April 2025 compared to a $1.3bn deficit last year.
“This entire year will be completed on a surplus,” he stated.
The minister termed the 7pc increase in exports, especially in the IT sector as a “big jump”, adding that money earned by freelancers was close to $400m.
He also noted that imports had increased by 12pc, with non-oil imports almost at the same level as back in 2022, which he said was the “time before the country’s economic crisis”.
The survey said the trade deficit in goods and services was “contained”, supported by “prudent import management and relatively stable global commodity prices”, which helped to moderate the overall external imbalance at 4.6pc of GDP, compared to 6pc from last year.
While the minister said machinery and transport imports had risen by 16.5pc and 24pc, respectively, he asserted that these would help the agricultural sector, where cotton was being imported.
“Remittances, like inflation, have been an outstanding story,” Aurangzeb remarked. “You can see a 31pc increase year-on-year from $31bn and a record $4.1bn in March. When we close June, we expect our overall remittances to be $37-38bn,” he added, noting that the figure was $10bn less two years ago.
“It is very critical that we mention the momentum of the Roshan Digital Account (RDA) because that is investment and lifestyle-led,” the finance head noted.
The minister called RDAs a “different segment of our diaspora”, with inflows from it crossing $10bn and 814,000 accounts opening.
“When we talk about remittances, sometimes we forget about RDA, which is playing a very important role in terms of how we take our diaspora and their commitment to Pakistan,” he stressed.
The minister noted there was a 26pc increase in terms of revenue collection, “on the back of 30pc growth in revenue last fiscal year”.
“There has been a deepening and expanding of the tax base,” Aurangzeb stated.
“Individual filers doubled to 3.7m filers. High-value filers also increased by 178pc,” he said, recalling there were 74pc additional retail registrations in the last fiscal year.
Speaking about debt management, Aurangzeb pointed out that the government had “brought back Rs1tr in local debt due to two reasons”.
“We reduced the prices and money going into markups,” he highlighted, adding that the second reason was to give a signal to the banking system that the government was “not a desperate borrower anymore”.
“We will borrow, but at our terms. It is about time you start lending to the private sector. This was an important message for the banks and they can see the increase,” the minister said.
Aurangzeb further highlighted the banking sector’s shift to Islamic banking. “Average time to maturity has been increased by 66pc so that the refinancing risk is reduced as much as it can be and to prevent bunching around maturities. We want to keep this at 65pc,” he said.
“If the policy rate is falling along with the debt servicing rate, we need to create an alpha. We need liability management trades and strengthening the debt management offices for this purpose.”
“My focus for this fiscal year is restructuring our debt management office around global standards,” Aurangzeb added.
The minister further remarked that the money saved in debt servicing could be diverted to the social or development sectors.
The recent Pakistan-India conflict also came up during the speech: “The way our military helped our nation get a real, real win against India, so, we too have been fighting a war on the economic front.
“The Indian executive director left no room for us, he didn’t want the IMF meeting to happen. If it did, he didn’t want certain items on the agenda, such as receiving the second tranche of the EFF,” the minister said, referring to New Delhi approaching the Fund over Pakistan’s loan.
“Financial institutions and our bilateral partners are standing with us on the economic front as well because economic security is absolutely critical as we move forward,” Aurangzeb said.
“It is a very critical component of national security,” the minister stressed.
He also referred to surveys carried out by various bodies, including one by the Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce & Industry (OICCI), which stated that foreign investors’ confidence had gone up by 16pc. Similarly, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) had said optimism among companies’ chief executive officers had surged by 83pc, he noted.
“If CEOs are optimistic, then they can take the firms forward that ‘please invest in this country’. Foreign investors can come only if local investors come,” Aurangzeb remarked.
“This survey is extremely important. I keep talking to various CEOs myself so it is very positive,” he stressed.
The minister also mentioned a survey by Gallup which said household financial institution affordability has gone up by 27.5pc in one quarter, as well as an Ipsos survey that indicated that national optimism was at a six-year high.
“Now we have to take this forward. SIFC — focused on energy, IT, agriculture and mining — is going to be a real game changer for Pakistan’s future investments,” the minister asserted.
On the Benazir Income Support Programme, part of the social sector, Aurangzeb said Rs593bn were disbursed, supporting around 10m families.
The minister also mentioned that Pakistan rolled out its National Climate Finance Strategy at the COP29 conference in Baku last year, as well as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and emission reduction.
“Although for us, the biggest challenge is adaptation, not necessarily emissions,” Aurangzeb underscored.
Noting his discussions with global lenders on Green Sukuk, the minister stated the country should “depend on our local resources as we go forward, rather than going around asking help from others”.
“Next year, we have to operationalise the funding we have received with projects that help in decarbonisation and climate resilience,” he announced.
Fiscal deficit
The survey noted that the fiscal deficit was recorded at a “significantly low” 2.6pc of the GDP during the first nine months of the current fiscal year, compared to 3.7pc recorded last year in the same period.
This was achieved by “actively improving public finances by implementing reforms and initiatives related to revenue and spending”.
This was largely because of an “improving trajectory for the last three years” and due to The ongoing efforts towards fiscal consolidation that continued to reinforce fiscal discipline throughout the current fiscal year.
The survey said the above was also underpinned by a “substantial increase” in revenues attributed to various tax policy and administrative measures and effective expenditure management.
Tax collection
Federal Board of Revenue tax collection grew 26.3pc to Rs9,300.2 billion from July to April against Rs7,361.9 billion in the year-ago period. The collection target for the 12-month period set by the government was Rs12,970bn.
KSE-100 performance
The survey said that during July-March FY25, the Pakistan Stock Exchange’s benchmark KSE-100 index performed “remarkably well” and registered a significant growth of 50.2pc from 78,445 to 117,807 points.
It added that during the period under review, the index closed at its highest level of 118,770 points on March 20 while the lowest level was observed at 77,084 points on August 5.
“The unprecedented performance of the KSE-100 index can be associated with the robust corporate earnings, declining policy rate and inflation, successful first IMF EEF (International Monetary Fund Extended Fund Facility) programme review and subsequent disbursement of the tranche, and stable macroeconomic environment, which boosted investors’ confidence.”
‘Macroeconomic stability means to an end, not an end in itself’
The finance minister then opened the floor for reporters and media representatives for questions. Responding to a query, Aurangzeb said: “We stand behind the data because it is not from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics or the planning ministry but from the government.
“We will go with what has been published. Any concerns can be shared with us. I agree that data integrity is critical.”
Responding to another query, the minister reiterated, “The data provided is the government’s. Therefore, we will stick with what the government has said and what the government has provided, so I’m going to stay with that.
“But since you (a reporter) have mentioned some specific points, you can send it to us and we will definitely see how it can be improved further. It’s about collection, aggregation, reporting.”
Aurangzeb acknowledged that “everyone has their own views on livelihood”.
“Macroeconomic stability is not an end in itself, it is a means to an end. If people’s LCs (letters of credit) are opening, remittances are happening, the policy rate is down, financing 23-24pc and Kibor rate is at 11-12pc, these are not rozi (livelihood) but factual.”
On a recent report by the World Bank, which said 45pc of Pakistanis live below the poverty line, the minister talked about a threshold change across the world. “Did they change it according to the ground facts of various countries, you changed the threshold and took it to $3 [per capita income] and that went from here to there?”
The minister said he would speak tomorrow (the budget day) on providing social protection to the lower strata as we go forward.
Responding to a question on unemployment, Aurangzeb noted, “The government’s job is to provide an ecosystem. I am not in favour of announcing that one to three billion jobs are being provided.”
Terming freelancers the country’s future, he highlighted a Pakistani diaspora that gave a $15m grant to the Lahore University of Management Sciences to create blockchain technology.
“Our children who make $8-10 they get into Web 3.0 their income can go to $100 as that is the programming. But if we take them to value add, then the income is beneficial to them and the country.”
The minister affirmed he would speak with “enforcement agencies” about ensuring the Rs37,000 minimum wage. “We have enough laws and legislation,” he said.
About structural reforms in the energy and taxation sectors, Aurangzeb said: “We cannot leave this. We have to stay the course. This is not an and/or discussion. I refuse to buy that climate change has no relation here. These are all interconnected.”
Noting that financing was available, he said the challenge now was how to channel it. Detailing the IMF’s $1.3bn Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), Aurangzeb noted it had 13 reform measures, including decarbonisation and carbon resiliency.
“These have to be implemented with all ministries working together. […] $600-700m are available each year. We have financing available, we have to move towards execution, which is a critical aspect,” he said, referring to climate funds secured from various bodies.
The finance chief further recalled that as per PM Shehbaz, a meeting on the National Finance Commission will be held in August.
He also expressed concern about the population growth rate and said: “We have to bring incentivisation. You are asking if it will reach 2.7pc in the next quarter or not. How will the country sustain this? We have 24bn population today.”
Responding to a query about development schemes, he echoed Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal’s statements that the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) would be focused on strategic projects that “deal with the economic lifeline of the country”.
Finance Secretary Imdadullah Bosal noted that the difference between revenues and expenditures was “not so big”.
“Our fiscal deficits are close to 8pc and are ultimately coming to a stage where the federal fiscal deficit is relatively low. As this goes lower, revenues increase. Expenditures where cuts are needed will be done. You will have greater space for PSDP,” Bosal said.
At one point, Aurangzeb said: “If local investors are looking and talking positively about macroeconomic stability, there are three discussions [to be held] with them: financing, taxation, and energy.”
He also expressed the hope for the crop sector to rebound, noting 60pc of the agricultural sector comprised of dairy and livestock.
Replying to a query on the country’s expenditures, Bosal said: “We cannot cut our spending any more.”
“Fourteen per cent is our target. We need to reduce expenditures but our neighbour, whom we just fought in a war, is on 18pc,” the finance secretary added.
Responding to a question on allocating 2,000MW for bitcoin mining and AI despite ongoing power outages, Aurangzeb said, “As far as load-shedding goes, [Power Minister Awais Leghari] has given plenty of press conferences on this, but in areas with electricity theft, there will be load-shedding.”
Fiscal findings
According to the Annual Plan Coordination Committee (APCC), whose recommendations were endorsed by the National Economic Council (NEC), Pakistan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate for the fiscal year 2024–25 has been recorded at 2.7pc while the target for GDP growth in the next fiscal year has been set at 4.2pc.
The NEC also noted that remittances witnessed a strong increase of 30.9pc from July 2024 to April 2025, and for the first time, the current account balance remained in surplus during this period.
The survey also highlights improvements in fiscal indicators, including a reduction in the fiscal deficit to 2.6pc of GDP. The primary balance recorded a surplus of 3pc of GDP, reflecting a more disciplined fiscal approach.
Owing to improved economic fundamentals and proactive monetary policy measures, the policy interest rate was gradually reduced to 11pc. Meanwhile, credit to the private sector grew significantly, with loans amounting to Rs681 billion disbursed between July 2024 and May 2025.
The survey highlights trends, achievements, and challenges across major sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, industry, services, energy, information technology and telecommunications, capital markets, health, education, transport, and communication.
Additionally, it sheds light on developments in social protection programmes, environmental sustainability, and infrastructure.
The document also presents updated data on critical economic indicators such as inflation, trade and balance of payments, public debt, population growth, employment levels, and climate change impacts. By offering a consolidated view of these indicators, the survey aims to inform public debate and policy planning in the lead-up to the new fiscal year.
Meanwhile, the NEC emphasised that recent signs of “economic stabilisation” were the result of coordinated efforts by the federal and provincial governments.
It stated that the country has now moved onto a path of economic recovery and growth, with the agriculture sector playing a particularly important role in strengthening national reserves and supporting economic expansion.
“A comprehensive strategy is currently being formulated to ensure a steady and sustainable increase in agricultural productivity in the coming years,” it said.
In terms of development spending, a total outlay of Rs3,483bn has been approved for the Annual National Development Programme (ANDP) for 2024–25. Of this amount, Rs1,100bn was allocated for federal development initiatives, while Rs2,383bn was utilised by provincial governments for their respective projects.
